There is now convincing evidence that our climate is changing, and that the emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are partly responsible for the observed changes. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. In any future, particularly those describing a world affected by climate change, surprises are going to be difficult to navigate in management. Shaw 2 1center for science in the earth system climate impacts group, university of washington, seattle, washington 98195 usa.
Uncertainty in climate change adaptation suraje dessai sustainability research institute and esrc centre for climate change economics and policy, school of earth and environment, university of leeds, uk climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation cciam research group, faculty of sciences, university of lisbon, portugal. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation. Evidence, uncertainty, and wicked problems in climate change. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy nature. To develop a range of tools to assess and manage the transition to adaptive management tailored to the institutional, cultural, environmental, technological settings of river basins. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management 2 are beyond the scope of this project.
Request pdf on jan 1, 20, rasoul yousefpour and others published risk and uncertainty in adaptive forest management under climate change find, read and cite all the research you need on. Pilkey, an accomplished earth scientist, writes in a relatively straightforward style tuned for readers with minimal. Method a survey of the current literature is carried out to identify approaches and developments that may prove most promising in relation to different challenges to the adaptive management of forest. For everyone else, the fact that uncertainty inherent in any complex area of science has. Pdf humanitys transformation of the earth has increased the concentration of greenhouse gases, thereby altering earths climate. Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators and scholars. Finally, it provides insight on how agencies can manage uncertainty that has. A comparison of adaptive management and real options. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty.
Jan 08, 2014 trying to preventmitigate climate change is unwise if the policies proposed to preventmitigate climate change have near zero probability of achieving any beneficial change to the climate but would cost a fortune with high probability. When it comes to climate change, the greatest difficulty we face is that we do not know the likely degree of change or its cost, which means that environmental policy decisions have to be made under uncertainty. Camacho abstract though legislatures and agencies are considering how to prevent further climate change, some adverse effects from a warming climate are already inevitable. Adaptive management am emerged in the literature in the mid1970s in. Climate change and its impacts on vegetation and natural resources point to a future that is quite different from even the recent past. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management article pdf available in ecology and society 12 december 1997 with 523 reads how we measure reads. Martin bunzl takes the idea of climate change as a risk management problem seriously. Second, the article is anchored in the specific implications of climate change, considering the value of interagency information sharing and adaptive governance in addressing climate effects. Managing the uncertainty and risks of climate change. Managing uncertainty through a learning infrastructure alejandro e.
The calculability of climate change and the challenge of uncertainty pdf, epub, docx and torrent then this site is not for you. Key words adaptive management, climate change, nonstationarity, structured decisionmaking, uncertainty. Emina krcmar1, shirley mah2, gordon nigh2, christine fletcher2 and g. One of the major issues in climate change policy is how to deal with the considerable uncertainty that surrounds many of the elements needed, in terms of the scientific understanding of the processes driving climate change, for example, the risk of possible catastrophic effects of climate change, the impacts of any such changes on society and the economy, the extent to which. Managing for climate change developing strategies for. This article provides an overview of climate change in literature, focusing on the representation of climate change in anglophone fiction.
The first is orrin and keith pilkeys global climate change. This perspective explores whether policymakers can learn from adaptive management techniques to make climate policies antifragile, embracing and. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management. Flood flow frequency will likely change current section on climate trends and may say that major changes in climate may be occurring over decades. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives. Girot, ceespiucn brett orlando, iucn norry schneider, iucn erika spangersiegfried, seib. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. The communication of uncertainty is hindering climate change action the longer the climate discourse is mired in the intricacies of uncertainty, the less likely a. This perspective explores whether policymakers can learn from adaptive management techniques to make climate policies antifragile, embracing and benefitting from scientific uncertainty, rather. Pdf understanding climate change adaptive behaviour of. Given our focus we do not discuss all aspects related to adaptive management, such as.
This book offers an accessible philosophical treatment of the broad range of ethical and. Managing for climate change developing strategies for protected area managers edited by sue stolton and nigel dudley results of a seminar organised by bfn and the united nations development programme at the international academy for nature conservation on the island of vilm, germany august 2010. Scientists say they can never be sure exactly how extreme global warming might become, but thats no excuse for delaying action. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject.
Cascade of uncertainties in climate change impact assessment giorgi, 2005. Pdf uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management. In assessing the economics of climate change there are therefore at least two sources of uncertainty what the climate will be, and what any given changed climate will mean in economic terms. Risk and uncertainty in adaptive forest management under. Jan 31, 2014 for fans of probability, confidence intervals and margins of error, climate change is a dream come true.
Climate change is a risk management problem each of the last three decades has been successively warmer than any preceding decade since 1850 and according to the latest work from the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc, the earths average surface temperature is forecast to continue rising in the remainder of the 21st century. The communication of uncertainty is hindering climate change. Several introductory books on the topic help fill the void. Most scientists and decisionmakers now recognize that climate change has not only in. This paper is an extract from the book climate change. Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning. The best books on climate change and uncertainty five books.
The coherence of observed changes with simulations of anthropogenic and. Apr 10, 2017 climate change can be a daunting topic, particularly if you have a limited science background. The principle of risk management articulated in the climate change act adds further requirements of transparency, comprehensibility and striving for best practice when. Risk, uncertainty and decisionmaking ukciptechnical report executive summary v executive summary climate change as a risk to decisionmakers 1. In a book that is personal, as well as philosophically, politically, and scientifically wellinformed, he asks us to see the challenge of climate change in collective terms. The fundamental uncertainties of climate change climate etc. Given the large uncertainties in issues such as climate change, adaptive policies are called for. The process aims to assist nepal to reduce its vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience, and. Indeed, climate change poses a direct threat to many indigenous societies.
It considers climate change as more than a problem that can be addressed solely through technical expertise. Uncertainty and change can relate to planning, engineering, socioeconomic andor environmental factors including climate change adaptive management was incorporated in the dmnp ea and linked to the project goal and objectives to better respond to uncertainty and change. The expectations serve as a starting point for our interaction with companies on the topic of climate change. The role of uncertainty in adaptive water management. The scientific consensus that is the uns intergovernmental panel on climate change, is 95% certain that human activity is the main cause of current global warming that goes up to 97% of scientists actively publishing about climate. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a.
In climate adaptation thinking in the netherlands, a. Adaptive management to address climate change uncertainty. Tulloch e a csiro, dutton park, qld b csiro, north ryde, nsw c csiro, clayton, vic d school of geography, the university of queensland, st lucia, qld e fenner school of environment and society, the australian national. Fcerm appraisal guidance follows the treasury 2003 green book in defining risk in. Practical needs and approaches for water resources. Human influence has been detected in nearly all of the major assessed components of the climate system. What are the main uncertainties regarding climate change. Science and policy implications summary almost all scientists agree that the earths climate is changing, having warmed by 0. I particularly liked bishop nick holtams example at the climate march on 17 june. If youre looking for a free download links of climate change and policy. Aug 05, 2015 we argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be antifragile with respect to scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management ideas enjoin policymakers to acknowledge uncertainty and adopt. Considering the uncertainty surrounding climate change, knowledge and policy need to be continually updated and challenged. Cambridge core institutional access books catalogue individuals.
More facts dont change minds, and deeply held views dont always dictate behaviour. We argue that climate change policy could benefit by taking an adaptive approach. Article information, pdf download for evidence, uncertainty, and wicked. Adaptive management national academies, adaptive management for water resources project planning, the national academies press, washington, dc, 2004. Adaptive management national academies, adaptive management for water. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for. This focus looks at how the climate system works, at the. Adaptive and riskbased approaches to climate change and the. As the climate continues to change, decisionmakers will need to adjust plans. Thesis, wageningen university, wageningen, nl 2011 with references, with summaries in dutch and english isbn 9789461730459. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest. Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty arjan wardekker.
Taken together, the combined evidence increases the overall level of confidence in the attribution of observed climate change, and reduces the uncertainties associated with assessment based on a single climate variable. An economic analysis of adaptation to climate change under uncertainty, 179 pages. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy friederike e. The best books on climate change and uncertainty five. The best books on climate change and uncertainty recommended by kate marvel when we talk about climate change, we sometimes assume people will be swayed by one more graph, one more coherent argument. A very interesting new article in nature climate change. Natural resource management and vulnerability reduction background paper to the task force on climate change, adaptation and vulnerable communities by janet abramovitz, worldwatch institute tariq banuri, seib pascal o. Practical needs and approaches for water resources adaptation. Managing uncertainty in climate driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change jeremy s.
Climate change can be a daunting topic, particularly if you have a limited science background. Though legislatures and agencies are considering how to prevent further climate change, some adverse effects from a warming climate are already inevitable. We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be antifragile with respect to scientific uncertainty. This book presents a new perspective on adaptation to climate change. Hydrological modelling for assessing climate change impacts at different scales. Adaptive and riskbased approaches to climate change and the management of uncertainty and.
The international panel on climate change ipcc has managed such a process with the science of climate change. The principle of risk management articulated in the climate change act adds further requirements of transparency, comprehensibility and striving for best practice when managing and allocating climate change risks. Stern national research council psychology can make a signi. Science indicates that the earths global average temperature is now approaching, or. In the harsh arctic environment, indigenous knowledge provides the basis for risk management. In parallel with revision of bulletin 17b, usace, usgs. Thesis, wageningen university, wageningen, nl 2011 with references, with summaries in. Uncertainty and the philosophy of climate change bunzl, martin on.
We have applied this framework to four water related sectors in denmark. Oct 25, 2007 climate change s uncertainty principle. Coping with climate change remains a daunting challenge. What is determined to be a dangerous degree of climate change can be expected to depend on the effects on human and natural systems and their capacity to adapt. Contributions of psychology to limiting climate change. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to. Third, it engages the growing theoretical literature on adaptive management and federalism. Managing uncertainty in climatedriven ecological models. An economic analysis of adaptation to climate change under. Adaptive management for climate change springerlink. Instead, it approaches climate change as an adaptive challenge that is fundamentally linked to beliefs, values and worldviews, as well as to power, politics. Uncertainty and the philosophy of climate change 1st.
Pdf adaptive management for climate change researchgate. The communication of uncertainty is hindering climate. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change. The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. A comparison of adaptive management and real options approaches for environmental decisions under uncertainty i. To develop approaches that integrate poverty alleviation, gender awareness and health planning in the adaptive management of river basins. Stakeholders may request repeating the decision process with additional and or different ecological, economic and social goals and criteria. Overview of climate change impacts according to the ipcc ar4 ipcc, 2007b numbers in the righthand sidebar refer to the corresponding chapters in the ar4. Boards should integrate relevant climate change challenges and opportunities in their business management, such as investment planning, risk management, and. Our expectations are primarily directed at company boards. Adaptive management seeks to improve scientific knowledge. Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators and scholars have largely neglected this need. This article evaluates the capacity of natural resource governance to cope with the effects of climate change and provides a framework for.
Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under. Contributions of psychology to limiting climate change paul c. Modelling approaches that could support adaptive management strategies seem to be called for, not only as climate change denotes increased economic uncertainty but also because new and more. Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty. Climate changes uncertainty principle scientific american. Understanding climate change adaptive behaviour of farmers.